Hurricane Hilary is heading toward Southern California where it is forecast to bring heavy rain, flash flooding, mudslides and gusty winds.
The greater Southwest area, including Las Vegas, could also see flash flooding from this very rare event. First tropical storm to hit California in 84 years.
The system was dubbed a tropical storm on Wednesday morning when it developed maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. As of Thursday morning, it was found to have strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 75 mph. The system has undergone rapid intensification with winds increasing 35 mph in 24 hours or less and was located less than 600 miles to the south of the southern tip of Mexico’s Baja peninsula.
Direct impact from tropical storms and hurricanes in the eastern Pacific on the Southwest is rare but not unheard of, according to meteorologists. Most of these systems tend to turn out to sea or lose wind intensity long before reaching far enough to the north to bring heavy rain, severe thunderstorms and gusty winds in the zone from Southern California to Arizona. However, once in a while these conditions, especially the impacts from heavy rain, occur in the region.
“Hilary has the potential to bring significant impacts to the Baja California Peninsula and portions of the southwestern United States this weekend and early next week, including after it becomes post-tropical,” the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in its latest advisory.
Ocean water off the coast of California is cool, so winds should diminish the intensity of Hurricane Hilary if the forecast track brings the storm to the Golden State. What forecasters are keeping an eye on will be the abundant tropical moisture that could be flowing into California, Nevada and Arizona.
Flooding from heavy rain will be a significant threat, but the biggest impacts are still unknown as the storm is still several days out.
Hurricane Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches, across portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Monday morning. Flash flooding, which could be significant, will be possible.
Heavy rain associated with Hurricane Hilary is also expected to impact California and the Southwest starting late Friday or early Saturday morning and lasting through early next week, with peak impacts expected on Sunday and Monday.
Southern California, including Los Angeles and San Diego, could see several inches of rain through Wednesday. Amounts totaling 3-5 inches are forecast for portions of southeastern California and portions of southern Nevada. Locally higher amounts between 5-8 inches are also possible.
Between 2 and 3 inches of rain are possible in portions of western Arizona.
